The fragile peace in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is facing a renewed test. While the Pretoria Agreement signed in November 2022 successfully halted the massive bloodshed of the two-year civil war, the fundamental political, territorial, and security grievances that ignited the conflict remain largely unaddressed. This vacuum has allowed the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to undergo a significant period of political and organizational repositioning.

Since 2024, a striking pattern of developments has emerged. Instead of a complete transition to civilian-led peace, the TPLF has managed to retain significant military leverage. Reports of renewed recruitment, internal political maneuvering, and even unexpected diplomatic contacts with former adversaries like Eritrea suggest that the movement is far from diminished in its capacity to influence regional affairs.

Why This Matters

BozokMedia analysis shows that the failure to fully implement the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) process creates a high-risk environment for regional escalation. If the TPLF continues to consolidate power through both political and paramilitary channels, the risk of a return to full-scale conflict increases exponentially.

The people of Tigray desire peace, yet the specter of renewed mobilization threatens to drag them back into a cycle of violence.

One of the most critical failures lies in the implementation of Article 6 and 7 of the agreement. While heavy weaponry was surrendered, the underlying military structures in Tigray were not fully dismantled. In 2026, reports of forced mobilization and recruitment have surfaced, directly challenging the ban on military preparations stipulated in the peace deal.

Politically, the TPLF has navigated internal leadership struggles to emerge more cohesive. The replacement of Getachew Reda and the subsequent election of Debretsion Gebremichael as president of the Tigray regional council signal a consolidation of power within specific factions of the movement, rather than a move toward a settled post-war political order.

Historical Background

The history of conflict in this region is deeply rooted in the complex relationship between the Ethiopian federal government, the Tigrayan leadership, and the neighboring state of Eritrea. The 1998-2000 border war and the subsequent 2020-2022 Tigray war have left a legacy of displacement and deep-seated mistrust that a mere cessation of hostilities has struggled to heal.

The recent emergence of the Tsimdo—a convergence of groups opposing the federal government—further complicates the landscape, suggesting that the discontent is not limited to a single political entity but is a broader regional phenomenon.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What was the main goal of the Pretoria Agreement?
The agreement aimed to achieve a permanent cessation of hostilities, disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and the return of displaced persons.

2. Why is the TPLF regrouping a concern?
It is a concern because the political and territorial disputes that caused the war are still active, and military regrouping could lead to renewed fighting.