Kerala is grappling with a significant rainfall deficit of 22% as the southwest monsoon enters its final phase. With a below-normal September forecast, the state risks early summer-like heat and water shortages.
- Rainfall in Kerala is currently 22% below the seasonal normal.
- Wayanad and Idukki are the hardest hit, with deficits of 51% and 44% respectively.
- El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are suppressing monsoon activity.
- Low reservoir levels in key districts threaten water and power security.
Kerala is staring at a deficient monsoon season as the southwest monsoon enters its final lap. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the state has recorded a rainfall deficit of 22% from June 1 to August 31. The monthly outlook for September further predicts below-normal rainfall, significantly increasing the probability of the season ending with a substantial shortfall.
Adding to the concern, private weather agency Skymet had previously downgraded its national monsoon forecast to 'drought,' projecting seasonal rainfall at only 85% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a 70% probability of drought conditions.
Why This Matters
BozokMedia analysis shows that the geographical distribution of this deficit is particularly alarming. Rain deficiency is prevalent in eight of Kerala's 14 districts. The crisis is most acute in Wayanad and Idukki, where deficits have reached 51% and 44%. Because these two districts house a major share of the state's power-generating reservoirs, a prolonged lack of rain directly jeopardizes the state's hydroelectric power capacity and drinking water reserves.
"Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, there is little scope for a significant revival of rainfall activity across the State in September, barring isolated light showers." - Neetha K. Gopal, Director, IMD Thiruvananthapuram.
The meteorological drivers behind this shortfall include a strengthening El Niño and a weak Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Both phenomena typically act as suppressors for the Indian monsoon. Furthermore, the rain-enhancing mechanisms—such as strong westerlies from the Arabian Sea and active offshore troughs along the West Coast—have remained largely inactive this season.
| Region/Parameter | Normal Rainfall (mm) | Actual Rainfall (mm) | Deficit (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerala (Overall) | 1,759 | 1,368 | 22% |
| Wayanad | - | - | 51% |
| Idukki | - | - | 44% |
While the southwest monsoon is preparing to withdraw from Rajasthan and other northwest regions, Southern Kerala might see some isolated heavy showers during the retreating phase, provided weather systems develop over the Bay of Bengal. However, this is unlikely to offset the massive seasonal deficit already accumulated.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1: Will September bring any relief in terms of rainfall?
A: While isolated light showers are possible in some pockets, the IMD expects below-normal rainfall overall for the month.
Q2: How does El Niño affect Kerala's weather?
A: El Niño involves the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific, which often disrupts atmospheric circulation and weakens the monsoon winds reaching the Indian subcontinent.
