New Delhi (Ravi Dutta Mishra) – Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal told reporters on Monday that the India‑United States trade framework is essentially complete and will be signed when the timing is optimal. The deal is designed to shield Indian exporters from the looming Section‑301 tariffs while establishing a clear roadmap for balanced trade relations.

Background and Current Tariff Landscape

The United States currently enforces a 10% global tariff under Section 122, slated to remain in force until July 24. In parallel, a 12.5% tariff on Indian goods has been proposed following a Section 301 investigation into forced‑labour concerns. During a recent public hearing, India demanded a review of these tariffs, citing inconsistencies in the U.S. probe.

Progress of Ongoing Investigations

Agrawal explained that two separate investigations are underway. One is at an advanced stage: India has submitted its comments, and the draft investigation report was released last month, with a final report expected this month. The second investigation has yet to publish a draft; once released, the final outcome could take four to six weeks—or longer—to materialise. Both governments are keen to prevent any new tariffs from emerging after a trade deal is concluded.

Agricultural and Energy Concerns

The secretary highlighted that India has increased its imports of U.S. energy products, describing the trend as “positive.” However, agricultural market access remains contentious. Senior officials disclosed that Washington is reluctant to ease its demand for U.S. agricultural exports into India, while New Delhi seeks to protect its domestic farmers.

Economic Data and Future Outlook

According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s export surplus fell 40% in May 2026 to $2.94 billion, compared with $5.02 billion a year earlier. The United States now accounts for nearly 20% of India’s total exports—double the share in 2010‑11. Petroleum product exports to the U.S. dropped 24% in March 2026, while imports of the same category surged 131%. Similarly, exports of electronic components fell 33%, whereas imports jumped 136% over the same period.

These figures underscore the growing interdependence between the two economies and the urgency of a comprehensive framework that mitigates tariff risks while fostering deeper commercial ties.