Ballymore CEO John Mulryan warns that London's true housing crisis hasn't arrived yet, predicting a massive supply shock between 2027 and 2029 that will send rents and prices soaring.

  • London's private housing starts have dropped significantly over the last decade.
  • The UK government's construction targets for London are expected to miss by 92%.
  • A major supply crunch is predicted for the years 2027, 2028, and 2029.

While Londoners are already struggling with high costs, industry experts suggest the worst is yet to come. John Mulryan, CEO of the major developer Ballymore, has issued a stark warning in a recent interview with The Times: the real housing crisis in London is still on the horizon and will arrive with a significant shock.

The Looming Supply Gap

The core of the issue lies not just in current demand, but in the precipitous drop in housing completions. While the city is currently feeling the crunch, Mulryan notes that the real devastation will occur when the pipeline of new-build completions dries up. Data suggests that the British government's construction targets for London are set to be undershot by a staggering 92 per cent.

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Why This Matters

BozokMedia analysis shows that this supply-demand mismatch creates a volatile economic environment. As the gap between housing starts and actual completions widens, the upward pressure on both private and affordable rents will become unsustainable for the city's workforce and international talent pool.

"Completions haven’t properly shrunk yet. They will, though. And that will be the real housing crisis." — John Mulryan

The period between 2027 and 2029 is identified as the danger zone. During these years, a lack of new-build completions across both affordable and private sectors is expected to trigger extreme pricing volatility, making London increasingly inaccessible.

Historical Context: The Irish Parallel

The warning comes from an Irish perspective, a nation that has navigated its own complex relationship with housing. Ireland's economy once relied heavily on property development, only to face a catastrophic collapse when the bubble burst. While Ireland is currently seeing a recovery in completions—rising from 12,000 in 2015 to an estimated 36,000 in 2025—London appears to be moving in the opposite direction.

Did You Know?: Ireland's housing completions are projected to triple between 2015 and 2025, whereas London's private sector starts are in decline.

Frequently Asked Questions

Question 1: When will the London housing crisis hit its peak?
Answer: Experts predict the most severe impact will occur between 2027 and 2029.

Question 2: Why is the government missing its housing targets?
Answer: A massive decline in private housing starts and a lack of completed projects are driving the shortfall.